He gave up 11 home runs in four starts and did not start a game the rest of season, bouncing up and down between the bullpen and the minors.Many Brewers fans (you know who you are) gave up hope on Burnes and thought the bullpen should be his permanent home and that Burnes simply wasn’t a good pitcher.
Shield your eyes for this grossness of a season-long stat line: 49.0 IP, 70 H, 48 ER, 20 BB, 70 K, .414 BABIP. Burnes had four pitches in his arsenal with high marks for his command as well. I’m hopeful the right-hander was alluding to fastball spin efficiency when he recently spoke about his carry-over from last season to this season (video in the imbedded tweet below; it’s really worth your time).You’d think Corbin Burnes would want to wipe the slate clean after his nightmare 2019. Take a closer look at the changes in BABIP and HR/FB ratio. He’sBased on his performance, Corbin Burnes has established himself in the starting rotation. A BABIP over .400 is insanely high and nowhere near Burnes’ average numbers throughout his big league or minor league career. This is the Corbin Burnes we’ve all been expecting to see for some time.
Justin Verlander’s high-spin fastball often serves as one of the most-easily recognizable ‘faces’ of data-friendly heaters. These things coming to fruition would naturally and obviously take a bit of pressure off the fastball, but Burnes’ improving his third and fourth-best pitches would be a mere side note of his growth and ascension if the he’s simply able to improve the spin efficiency of his heater.A lot of hype pieces this offseason have ended with a summation of “how __________________ can ascend to a mid-rotation fantasy pitcher” or “how ____________________ can provide sneaky value for your offense this season.” This article has a much more bold and serious conclusion.Despite a month of Spring Training games remaining before Opening Day and the fact Milwaukee is stretching-out the 25-year-old to start, it currently appears unlikely Burnes will open the season in the Brewers’ starting rotation. More than 300 picks It’s probably because you’re aware of Burnes’ horrific numbers from last season. If this happens, Burnes will become one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball Once more, I want to illustrate how much better Burnes’ slider is than the outcomes of his holistic arsenal from last season. All players are wearing #42 in honor of Jackie Robinson Day. As I’ve mentioned, increased differentiation between those two pitchers and the remainder of his arsenal should give him the confidence to utilize the curveball and changeup more moving forward. And it’s true! While it’s obvious the rest of Burnes’ arsenal needs to catch up with his otherworldly slider, there’s a tangible, increasingly-popular plan to actually make this happen.As was stated above, the right-hander certainly needs to throw his curveball and changeup more, especially versus left-handed hitters. This year, barely anything is going out.How did Burnes achieve such a drastic change, might you ask? Let’s dig inLast year, Corbin Burnes had four pitches that he threw in games; a fastball, slider, curveball, and a splitter. Perhaps unsurprisingly, both have alluded to working to improve this issue early in Spring Training.Dylan Cease said he felt better today than he did at any point last year, and was happy with his fastball command and the absence of cut. Spin efficiency is the crux of Burnes’ problems. My question? Those numbers were good for a 8.82 ERA and 6.09 FIP. Luckily, high-speed cameras, adequate instruction and additional technological assistance can quickly help a pitcher adjust their hand position and finger placement at release. But in an organization whose rotation is likely to include the likes of Brett Anderson, Josh Lindblom and Eric Lauer (and even Woodruff, who has struggled to remain healthy as a pro), it’s highly likely Burnes will have an opportunity to re-seize a spot in the rotation at some point in 2020—even if he begins the season in the Pacific Coast League.This offseason, Burnes was selected 436th overall in the Corbin Burnes is only 25 years old. Consider this article a call to arms before the buy-low window begins to close.Featured image courtesy of photographer Michael McLoone and USA Today SportsKeep in mind that the less vertical movement a fastball has, the betterif Burnes’ fastball ever reaches its potential, it will be one of the very best fastballs in . In dynasty league circles, this group of pitchers is commonly-heralded as the ‘next wave’ of fantasy aces. Can it be improved if its a focal point of an offseason?” The answer? Burnes was largely atrocious in 2019. The hard contact rate against Burnes in 2019 was 42.1% and in 2020, that number is at 42.4%.
As a matter of fact, I expect ‘improved spin efficiency’ to become a popular talking point around the league (even on mainstream platforms like MLB Network) over the course of the next few seasons. Pitchers like Cease and Joe Musgrove have been the focal point of these types of studies and breakdowns this season. This year, everything is moving all over the place and he’s got hitters guessing instead of sitting comfortably.Another important stat is that Burnes is getting hitters to swing and make contact on pitches out of the strike zone. The right-hander’s curve had a 92nd-percentile spin rate last season (2853 RPM) and induced a 42.9% Whiff, but opposing hitters A few more things worth mentioning: while we can’t yet confirm whether spin efficiency was a focus of the right-hander’s offseason, we do know The stakes are higher with Corbin Burnes. As a matter of fact, our Trevor Powers Burnes’ four seam fastball is the epitome of analytically elite, ranking 4th amongst all pitchers in the big leagues with 2654 RPM spin rate. It’s very likely Burnes’ hand and fingers resembled Dylan Cease’s (shown in the video above) last season, and the rest is unfortunate history. The 3.37 xFIP (and 2.72 FIP – xFIP, thanks to Burnes’ league-worst 38.6 HR/FB% and 3rd-worst HR/9 of 3.12 (min. What if I told you the same pitcher could be selected with the same pick (450) in dynasty start-ups? Instead of shrugging it off as a meaningless bump in the road or placing blame at the feet of poor luck, there was actually a legitimate—and fixable—issue that served as the predominant antagonist in the right-hander’s woes last season.
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